One thing is clear, fallout from the novel coronavirus has changed consumer spending habits and turbocharged online shopping. The team at Klaviyo now estimates DTC sales will nudge $1.1 trillion in 2020. That’s an unprecedented acceleration from 2019’s $591 billion mark.
Venturing a guess, expect to see the 2021 growth rate closer to the 15% historic uptrend of the past few years. That’s still tremendous growth in dollars when considering the trillion dollar baseline being set this year. Quite simply, more and more consumers are now used to clicking to purchase, whether they have things delivered to their door or pickup at a location.
Q3 should reload shelves with bikes and outdoor toys setting up a strong Q4. Expect lots of price incentives as Amazon has announced a belated Prime Day with speculation placing it somewhere in October. This will be followed closely by Cyber Week in November to pull forward holiday shopping.
Bearing in mind pandemic uncertainty, consumers will likely stick to driving destinations this winter to recreate. Travel restrictions set the pattern this summer and will likely remain the norm versus taking big trips across the country or traveling around the world.
As a result, this could be a great winter for otherwise niche products. Things like fat bikes could rebound as people look for snowbound adventure activities closer to home, and anything e-bike related will certainly continue its current meteoric rise. Backcountry ski equipment will be supercharged as many resorts will limit daily lift ticket sales and require pass holders to make reservations as Vail Resorts has already announced. These corona minded measures will push skiers to skip lift lines and look for alternatives.
2021 TRENDS – THINK TESLA FOR BIKES
E-Bikes will continue to lead the way as the fastest growing segment of the North American bike market. They already account for 50-65%+ of sales revenues in countries like Germany and the Netherlands, and better batteries, many more model offerings, and the simple joy of riding farther, faster will all lead to another year of 100% growth in 2021! Though this expansion is building on what is still a rather modest base of approximately $400 million in estimated 2020 total sales, consider this the place to be in bikes next year.
If you don’t see the “DTC Shift” progressing fast enough in your world, please give us a shout.